Preview - UD Football vs. Maine

The Blue Hens are headed up into the middle of nowhere to take on the Maine Black Bears, who are well rested after sitting idle last weekend.  They deserved the bye after facing Pitt the previous week, losing by six to the Panthers squad that just dismantled a ranked FBS opponent this week.  Both the Blue Hens and the Black Bears have things to work out in Orono on Saturday, so in an effort to keep things short, here is the short and sweet of it for both teams:


...but first, I dare you to point out where Orono, ME is on this map! (I had no clue either)

When you give up, click here to see where
Orono, ME is located.

If you do know your New England geography, it is just 15-20 minutes northeast of Bangor, home of Julie "The Cat" Gaffney (You can never have too many Mighty Ducks references in your life).

Back to reality with the Black Bears...

• Have We Seen This Before? - Old Dominion's Coach Wilder is a former Maine Black Bear (player and coach), and his defense models that of the current UMaine squad.  One of the keys for Maine this week will be tweaking that defense correctly to match what Delaware has planned against it.  The Hens put up 27 points vs. the Monarchs last weekend, with almost all of the yardage coming through the air.  After Coach Cosgrove praised the Delaware offensive line for being better than the Big East line they have already seen (the top RB for Pitt rushed for over 100 yards that game), you would think that the Blue Hens would be able to have a balanced attack vs. Maine.  However, the Hens only gained 80 yards on the ground vs. the Monarchs.  If the Maine run defense is as good as ODU's, then Delaware will be forced to the air where senior defensive backs Jerron McMillian and Trevor Coston will be anchoring the 7th-best passing efficiency defense in the country.
• Air or Ground? - QB Warren Smith threw for over 300 yards vs. Pitt when the running game was stalled.  RB Pushaun Brown ran for over 100 yards vs. Albany two weeks ago to help balance the passing game.  It appears that the Black Bears can attack you either way.  With the Hens secondary still being a bit suspect, it would appear that Smith should be able to put up some good numbers vs. Delaware at home.  However, with rain in the forecast, the passing game could end up being useless and the Blue Hens run defense has been strong thus far.  Look for which way the Black Bears offense starts to lean and if the weather has any affect on it.  I'm predicting that they will try to come out throwing the ball, but if the weather is bad enough, it will force them to hand the ball off more than they planned.

As for the Blue Hens...

• Revive the Ground Game - Andrew Pierce is ready to go after an MCL sprain last week vs. Old Dominion.  Even before he was injured, Pierce and David Hayes could not get the ground game going for Delaware.  This has to change this weekend vs. Maine.  On the storm front, the weather could play enough of a factor that Pierce and Hayes will get even more carries than expected, and force them to perform in a crucial CAA road game.  Also, if Delaware is to get the passing game going against a veteran Maine secondary, it is going to take a few 5-7 yard runs by the backfield to open up some zones for Donnelly to light up.  In my opinion, the ground game cannot/will not have a poor performance two weeks in a row, and will help to open up the air game, where the tight ends and running backs should have their biggest impact in short yardage passing plays.
• Air Defense - Delaware's secondary has taken their beatings both on the field and in the press this season.  Old Dominion's QB DeMarco seemed to find openings all game last week, but incompletions piled up and helped out the defensive backs greatly.  Warren Smith is supposedly a better passer than DeMarco.  His top target is TE Derek Buttles, which should benefit the Hens in that the linebackers will get Buttles most of the game.  However, if Smith can find his receivers in the rain, Delaware could be looking at it's first conference loss of the season.

To close this bullet-point-fest out, here are some extra facts about this weekend's game:

• Since 2004, the two teams have not had a game decided by less than ten points.
• Coach Cosgrove is going for his 100th career win this weekend (maybe some added pressure or incentive for the Black Bears).
• Game-time weather is expected to be around 60 degrees with showers throughout the contest. Cold and wet.  Not a good combination.

In the end, it's going to come down to how well each defense can perform in the bad weather.  I am predicting that both defenses will struggle early, but the Hens will be able to settle down the Bears sooner.

My Over/Under for UD vs. UM

• Total Points: 50.5 points
• Maine Passing Yards: 209.5 yards
• Delaware Rushing Yards: 169.5 yards

Bold Prediction:  Delaware's leading receiver will not be a wideout.
(Bad weather means short passes to tight ends and
running backs in the flats.  An accurate Tim Donnelly
helps make this plan seem even more likely.)

Projected Score:  Delaware 31, Maine 20
(If this were being played on a sunny day, I'd probably
predict higher scores, but the Hens by 11 has been
working so far this year, so I see that being the final margin.
Part of me wants to go even lower, but it's not like I'm being
paid to be right...)
Listen to the game on WDSD (UM video feed requires a fee).