Friday, September 2, 2011

The Upside of Wrong

Boy was I wrong.  Back on Monday, I ranked the six CAA vs. FBS matchups.  I placed the Villanova-Temple game at #4 (1 being most likely upset, 6 being the least likely).  Coach Andy Talley expressed concern about his team during the teleconference on Monday, even using the term "rebuilding mode."  To quote myself from that teleconference, here was my feelings about Villanova:
"I want to believe him and say that 'Nova will just be a fighter and not a contender, but this is 'Nova, and until they go out and lose a few, I'm not turning my back on them just yet." -AH2Delaware in CAA FB Teleconference
I think I can start to turn my back now.  This clearly is not the Villanova we have come accustomed to over the last few years.  Szczur and Whitney's absence was obvious as Temple absolutely destroyed 'Nova, 42-7.  Mike Gerardi threw for 235 yards and 2 touchdowns while Bernard Pierce ran for 147 yards in 20 carries and 3 touchdowns.  Villanova's only score came from Dustin Thomas with just under 8 minutes remaining to cut the lead back down to 35.  Ouch.

had New Hampshire vs. Toledo as the 3rd most likely to have the upset occur.  How much worse could I be?  Turns out, I was way off yet again.  The Rockets got out to a 24-0 lead in the first half against UNH, and finished off the Wildcats by a final score of 58-22.  Coach Sean McDonnell praised their skill position players during the teleconference on Monday, but I took it as your basic "give credit to your opponent to avoid any trash talk" comments.  Austin Dantin threw for three touchdowns.  Toledo backup quarterback Terrance Owens threw for 122 yards and two touchdowns. Bernard Reedy caught five passes for 113 yards and two touchdowns, which included a 63-yard touchdown catch from Dantin in the second half.  Clearly these guys "are" legit

There is some upside to all of this.  On one hand, maybe New Hampshire is not as good as they were projected to be.  If Toledo of all teams can run through them like that, maybe that is what they will be looking at all year long.  Or this was just a really good Toledo squad and UNH was unfortunate to match up against them.  Either way, Delaware would not face them until the playoffs so matchup-wise it should not matter.  A good UNH team would be better for the Hens as it would be a potential loss for everyone else instead.  As for Villanova, they are clearly not the same as they were in the past.  That last game of the year at PPL Park is looking a lot more pleasing than it did a few days ago.  'Nova has been the thorn in the side of the Hens each of the last two seasons, so getting an easier end to the regular season will be a nice change of pace.

I knew going into this weekend that the CAA would never go 6-for-6 vs. FBS opponents.  I still believe that Richmond and William & Mary will get their wins.  JMU will still struggle with UNC.  Delaware is the ultimate wildcard.  Either they can pull it off and shut down a challenging triple-option attack, or they get the front door knocked in Week 1.  We'll be there to find out!

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