Friday, September 16, 2011

Preview - UD Football vs. Delaware State


The Blue Hens were given a scare by a Division II school last weekend.  Delaware State was beaten by a Division II school last weekend, and then they were let off the hook.  Shaw University had the ball back with 1:01 remaining after DSU failed to connect on a game-tying field goal.  With only one timeout left for the Hornets, Shaw could have just taken a few knees and pulled off the upset.  Yet something told the D-II school to run the ball at least one more time.  Big mistake.  DSU stripped the ball from Shaw and just two plays later, Nick Elko's pass to Darius Jackson for six put the Hornets up for good.

It's a nice little story about a miracle play and some dumb luck in favor of the Hornets, but in the end, it needs to be noted that Delaware State was beaten by a Division II team.  After the Blue Hens managed to hold off West Chester last Saturday, a lot had been made about how Delaware State might be able to come in and pull off the upset.  On one hand, being a "rivalry" game, there is some added emotion to this matchup and it should motivate both teams to play harder and the crowd will definitely be into the game.  On the other, both games in this series so far have been fairly one-sided (yes, the second game was only 27-17, but DSU's last TD was with 31 seconds left in the 4th), and this is a team that barely scrapped by a Division II school.  Granted, Delaware also survived their game, but it did not come down to a miracle in the final minute to pull off the win.  Did I hammer home the fact that Delaware State should have lost to a Division II school yet?

Clearly the Hens have their own issues; the secondary was in shambles, the center had a case of the yips, and the running game could not get started until a few big runs by Andrew Pierce late in the 4th.  The secondary is young, so you could not expect them to be the turnover machine that last year's defensive backs were, but to have this big of a drop-off was not to be expected either.  I am sure that the coaching staff has ripped into them all week and should have them playing at a better level come game-time.  The center issue has been resolved as Gino Gradkowski, originally a center when he was at West Virginia, will be snapping the ball this weekend and Rob McDowell will shift over to guard.  This is your reminder that the man under center this week is once again Tim Donnelly.  Not exactly a standout performance last week, but he still did very well in place of the injured Trevor Sasek.  As for the running game, my money is on the Hens getting the ground attack going early in the day, instead of trying to prove that there is a passing game to open it up.

On the slower-lower side of the ball, the Hornets have been known for their aerial attack in their first two games.  It looks like Nick Elko is legit and so are the DSU receivers.  Unfortunately for Elko, his top receiver, Justin Wilson (MEAC Preseason Offensive POY 2011), is looking questionable with an ankle injury he suffered last weekend vs. Shaw.  There are other contributors to the offense on this team, but a preseason conference POY going out to injury is never good.

This is Coach Blount's first season with the Hornets, and it looks like he has the offense off to a good start.  However, Delaware State has not beaten a CAA opponent since 1994 (28-26 over Rhode Island).  Not too much else looks to really give this team an edge besides the fact that this is a "rivalry" game.

Before I get to the Over/Unders, here's my quick rant on this "rivalry."  In my opinion, a rivalry needs there to be a few factors involved.  One major factor is motive, which both teams have as this is an in-state game.  Another factor is revenge.  The Blue Hens ended the Hornets season back in 2007 with the blowout playoff win in the first round of the playoffs, but the revenge needs to go both ways.  Until you do enough damage to an opponent for them to respect you, it cannot be a rivalry.  The last major factor to me is competitive balance.  2-0 Hens, with whopping score advantage of 71-24.  Villanova is a rivalry game, and recent years have JMU and Richmond up there too. Until the fans stress about the DSU game like they do about the big CAA matchups (or until DSU can pull off the upset), this is not a rivalry.

My Over/Under for UD vs. DSU
  • Total Points: 50.5 points
  • DSU Passing Yards: 234.5 yards
  • Delaware Passing Yards: 184.5 yards
Bold Prediction:  Andrew Pierce has at least three TD's.
(I know he'll punch in two scores, but I have a hunch
he'll break out this weekend.)

Projected Score:  Delaware 31, Delaware State 20
(Time to wake up, Delaware! The time is NOW!)
Watch the game live on BlueHens.com

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